Tuesday, February 21, 2017

space wine - an out-of-this-world market opportunity?

In honor of SpaceX's historic launch this weekend and my personal hypothesis that "space wine" could be the next $1bn wine category, I decided to do some digging into wine in space. After all, wine was the first liquid to be consumed on the surface of the moon: Buzz Alrdrin and Neil Armstrong sipped wine during a communion ceremony immediately before setting foot on the lunar surface. And Russians - being Russians - allowed vodka and Cognac on missions until recently. So is it time for space wine?

First thing first, space agencies clearly haven't studied the lessons of Prohibition: alcoholic beverages are currently prohibited by most international bodies. Given Elon Musk's recent commitment to colonize Mars, the TAM is likely to grow explosively within the next few decades. Perhaps this creates a massive potential market opportunity: space bootlegging?

Science has also disproved many of the justifications for space Prohibition. Contrary to popular belief, a 1985 study demonstrated that individuals - if properly pressurized - do not feel the effects of alcohol faster at altitude. The results of this study are equally likely to apply to space imbibers as they as to our current stratospheric travelers in 747s. Instead, sociologists have argued that high-flying drinkers are more often experiencing a well-studied psychosomatic effect called "think drink": people act drunk when they think they are getting drunk.

All sociological phenomena I experienced in high school aside, alcohol and other volatile liquids are also banned because they could damage water recovery devices in space craft. Accordingly, any product containing alcohol (mouthwash, perfume, aftershave) is currently prohibited. Admittedly, then, technology would need to improve for open space bars to be viable.

And then there's the liability. Are we comfortable with the prospect of a space pilot sipping on a buttery Napa Chard while flying a $500 million spacecraft? NASA isn't. Astronauts are currently prohibited from drinking 12 hours before flying. But as we are on the dawn of commercial space travel, should this requirement apply to passengers as well? Is there a latent opportunity for in-flight service here?

And what about the product innovation opportunity? To date, there have been two investigations into the effects of microgravity's effects on flavor. In 2015, Japanese whisky maker Suntory shipped some of its whisky to the ISS to examine the effects on flavor. In 2011-2014, NASA examined the effects of microgravity on tannins in wood chips and whisky. It found that the amount of tannins, but it did have higher concentrations of flavor-imparting lignin. Could we one day speak of gravity in the same way we speak of terroir? Think about how cool it would be to say, "the 0 Gs are really forward on this Merlot..." on your next date!

In sum, what I see in space wine is a growing untapped market with distinct and differentiated flavor opportunities. Perhaps it is time to look up for new opportunities to innovate one of humanity's oldest consumed products?

Sources:
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170217-why-astronauts-are-banned-from-getting-drunk-in-space
https://www.wired.com/2016/09/elon-musk-colonize-mars/
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/02/19/516082519/watch-live-all-systems-go-for-spacex-launch-at-nasas-historic-pad

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