Tuesday, January 31, 2017

California Lifestyle as Luxury

At the end of class today I was struck by the fact that we discussed branding Frederick Family Wines as a luxury good in a very traditional, perhaps French, sense.  I love the idea of creating a special edition Louis Vuitton carrying case or a special edition stem, but I believe Napa wineries going into China should present a more authentic image.  For most of the world California is luxury! The romance is in the rugged landscape and the west coast attitude.

It appears that this notion already resonates with Chinese consumers.  I found an interesting article from current Knight Fellow, Julie Makinen, that describes the power of California in China.  She mentions that several Chinese companies have "California" as part of their trademarked names and that for younger Chinese, California brings up "feelings of escape, exile and … a dreaming land."

Napa wineries have an opportunity to channel these existing "good vibes" toward California into revenue if they strategically align their image with that of California.  



Is the Rabbit to wine openers what stemless glasses are to Gabriel-Glas?

Every time I watch Jeff uncork the wine in class, I wonder if there is a reason he's not using a fancier opener that would be easier than a traditional one.

Is there a reason for using the wine openers you use?

(Is asking this question similar to asking why we don't drink from stemless glasses?)

The Rabbit retails for $28.58 on Amazon and has 85% five-star ratings!

Wine snobs, please enlighten me...

 
VS. 

Entry into Chinese Market: Hospitality + Wine?

The "Wine in China" case discussed four potential options for entry into the Chinese market.  Each option came with a number of risks, so I wanted to determine if there was an option that leveraged some of these elements while de-risking the proposition even further.

Hospitality seems like a potential natural entry point into the Chinese wine market.  Hotel chains in China run by U.S.-owned companies could be a really interesting target.  These hotels have already spent time understanding the Chinese business market.  These hotels also have a staff on the ground that could support sales before you have to staff up an FTE on the ground.  Further, there is built-in real estate where a tasting room could be located, which would add a quality amenity to the hotel property.  Finally, the hotel restaurant could serve this wine in their restaurants and bars.  The range of promotional opportunities and the space for DTC sales makes this very appealing for a wine brand.

Would this be a good fit for Frederick Family Vineyards?  At the start of the case, it mentioned that Anne Bartlett had spent time in hospitality, so she would have the experience in that market.  Additionally, the brand may get access to international markets beyond China through travelers moving through the hotel, which could help refine an even broader international strategy.  Finally, this would offer built-in sales to the hotel that are relatively guaranteed, de-risking the choice to not sell bulk grapes.

I'm certainly not an expert in the hospitality market in China, so I would love to hear others' thoughts on whether or not this would be a viable option!

Brands vs. Wines

Brands are a big thing not just in China, but to Chinese people generally.  Even those that have immigrated to the states (my parents among them) are still fairly obsessed – whether it’s brand name schools (Harvard) or brand name careers (doctors).  In reading the case, this made me wonder what kind of shot a lesser known Napa Valley brand (at least in the Chinese context) would have in attracting consumers to give its wine a try.  As described, Chinese people also apparently drink their wines very quickly without taking the time to really taste it, which I think would only make the situation more challenging.  It appears that people consume brands, not wines.  In my view, any successful effort would necessarily include at least some form of a marketing component to build up the brand and generate pull-through sales.  Perhaps piecing together a network of boutique distributors, who have more incentive to promote a limited portfolio of wines, would work better than a larger player (assuming non-exclusivity).

The effect of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement on the Australian wine industry

The Wine in China case mentioned that Chinese consumers had recently become exposed to a greater variety of wines, including Australian wines as a result of the 2015 free trade agreement between the two countries.

Being an Aussie, I was interested in learning more about the agreement and the affect which it will have on the Australian wine industry.

What is the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement?

The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) is a bilateral free trade agreement which was signed in June 2015 after 21 rounds of negotiation over 10 years. The deal came into force in December 2015.

Under full implementation 95% of all Australian exports to China will be tariff free. The deal is particularly targeted at Australia’s strong agricultural sector.

The deal is particularly significant for Australia as China is Australia’s largest export market, accounting for about a third of total exports and an increasing amount of foreign investment.

What does it mean for Australian Wine?

At the time of the agreement, China was Australia’s second largest export market for wine ($415M in 2015-16). However, Australia, competed with both New Zealand and Chile who both had preferential wine access under their own FTAs with China. It was hoped that ChAFTA would help close this gap.

Under ChAFTA, tariffs of 14 and 20 per cent on wine, and tariffs of up to 65 per cent on alcoholic beverages and spirits, are being eliminated by 1 January 2019.

What has been the impact to date?

One year after ChAFTA came into effect, the Winemakers’ Federation of Australia announced that Australian wine exports to China had increased by 50%.

Wine exports to China in 2016 were valued at $500M. In 2006, that figure was just $27M. China is now $62M clear of Australia’s next biggest wine export market, the United States.

It is worth noting that in 2016 wine exporters were still paying an 8.4% tariff. This year that figure has dropped to 5.6%.

With tariffs continuing to fall until 2019, expect the prominence of Australian wine in China to grow as it looks to establish itself alongside France as the wine of choice for Chinese consumers.

Sources
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/china-solidifies-its-spot-as-australias-number-one-wine-export-destination/news-story/4df4e00683619a5333afa67387d99b5d

Ohio's back baby!

I remember seeing an ad, during some football game or early 2000s movie rerun, for Cincinnati.  Among other things, the ad touted the city’s proximity to a huge portion of America’s population. 

So when the WineDirect case noted that the company installed a distribution center in Ohio, I was only half surprised. 

The governor of Ohio, and former presidential candidate Jon Kasich, said "We're to the point now where location matters because logistics matters again… We're in a perfect location."

In fact-checking him, the organization PolitiFact found that “184,900,000 people live within 600 miles of Ohio, or 59.9% of the U.S. population.”

That 600-mile radius is key for logistics because it represents, more or less, a one-day’s drive (or ride in the back of a truck for a wine bottle). 

They also note that “in addition to 60% of the U.S. population, Kasich’s claim also would encompass the most populous parts of Ontario and Quebec.”

Beyond the absolute number of people in the region, WineDirect made a smart call putting a new warehouse in Ohio – able to cover many of the top wine-drinking states of California (via the original warehouse), New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.  Sorry Texas and Florida…

Source:

Domestic wine production in China

Given that we are discussing wine in China today in class I decided to do a bit of research on the domestic wine industry in China. China now has 10% of the world's vineyards, with 3000 square miles of land planted in grapes, second only to Spain. China has also become the world's largest consumer of red wine at 155.4M cases annually, compared to 150M in France and 141M in Italy. Most of the wine produced in China is consumed domestically. Although there is a lot of bulk production of low cost wine there are also high end red wines being produced in several regions of the country, notably coastal Shandong and far-west Xinjiang. Most of the high end wineries produce relatively high priced wines on a small scale and thus, cannot compete with established producers in other regions on price or volume. For example, in 2010 the Wall Street Journal favorably reviewed a 1998 Great Wall Cabernet that listed for $72 in Shanghai but was not available for export. Domestic producers have a rapidly growing and lucrative domestic market to serve and presently have no economic incentive to export their wine. The recent history of wine production in China dates back to 1892 when the Changyu winery was established in Yantai, Shandong province. Some of the early wineries were established to make sacramental wines for Chinese Christians. The three largest domestic wineries, with combined revenues in excess of $8B, are Changyu, Great Wall and Dynasty. Several French producers like Rothschild, Remy Cointreau (a partner in the Dynasty winery) and Moet have acquired Chinese vineyards and are producing wine locally to appeal to brand-conscious Chinese consumers. In general, this source predicts a big future for Chinese wine, not only domestically but internationally as well. In the words of Master of Wine Debra Meiburg, "China will rock our wine world--we just have to wait a little longer."
Source: China's wine industry explodes but not yet on the world stage. Michelle Florcruz. IBT 5/3/2015. http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-wine-industry-explodes-not-yet-world-stage-1902284

Three Tiers of Confusion for eComm Customers

We have explored the origins, mechanics, and potential future state of the U.S. three-tiered distribution system for wine (i. retailer/importer, ii. distributor/wholesaler, iii. retailer) as well as the role of third-party logistics firms and third-party marketing firms.

However, much of this discussion has been from the perspective of one or more of those players in the ecosystem, all of whom are a 'supplier' of some kind of from the perspective of the end consumer who drinks the wine. We haven't explored just how this regulatory and operational nightmare translates into end-user experience.

I decided to answer this question empirically by attempting to complete three types of wine purchases:

  1. Replicate one of the recent editions of Eric Asimov's "Wine School" 
    • NYT wine critic recommendations of wine varietals or regions to explore at home with friends, with recommendations and discussion. 
    • In this case, "Madeira."
  2. Purchase a variety of Georgian (Republic of Georgia) wines 
    • For research purposes for midterm project...
    • Horizontal (varietals, producers) and vertical (from some producers I know are good)
    • Emphasis on variety
  3. Pick up extra bottles of wines I like along the way
    • For example, a few extra bottles of Scharffenberger's non-vintage Brut Andersen Valley sparkling, if they could be had for same or less than a local retailer. 


This ended happily (enough) in that wine will be delivered to me. But the process was extremely painful, and illuminating. I had only ever ordered wine delivered before as a gift to others, and never when I was trying to be especially thoughtful or picky about the selection. It proved impossible to complete all three types of purchases locally, or with the same online retailer, and was frustrating in surprising ways.

My efforts to give retailers money in exchange for wine was stymied by:

  1. Weak eCommerce platforms 
    • For example, losing my cart; miscalculating shipping; etc.
  2. Inconsistent transparency on regulatory operating licenses 
    • Many caveats and "at your own risks" were employed to magic away some of the diligence that might have been called for in shipping to my jurisdiction.
  3. Extreme heterogeneity of assortment
    • Especially because some products I wanted were more unusual, the likelihood of one store carrying them all was very low.
    • In a surprise however, many categories were not carried at all, or were carried with minimal assortment.
    • Resources such as wine-searcher.com, while helpful, relied on paid placement or sponsored results, and had data issues that could be cumbersome - ranking 100 "half-bottles" as cheapest options instead of the first full 750ml bottle, for example, or not taking into account shipping costs for a UK retailer that imports from France (and may not ship to the U.S.)!
  4. High shipping costs and unclear pricing models
    • Shipping costs for firms not based in CA, shipping to CA, were often quite high
    • Could often easily guess if a retailer used WineDirect or another wine-focused 3PL vendor; many or most, however, used stores or local warehousing for fulfillment.
    • Ship costs varied in ambiguous, non-transparent ways when shipping to commercial vs. residential and when adding bottles ("If a case has a discount, does it matter if there are 2 half-bottles or 1 full bottle?")

In this regard third-party marketing firms, whether search engines like 1000 Corks and Wine-Searcher, or review sites like CellarTracker and Vivino, didn't solve the entire customer discovery journey. I was willing to exercise considerable flexibility, but the lack of an efficient marketplace was a tremendous impediment to the experience and indeed basket size.  It was further difficult to comparison-shop as shipping would not be adequately priced; a different of $3 per bottle gross could become a difference of $10 net depending on how shipping was calculated.

Ultimately, this information problem should be solvable. To some extent it is also a question of expectation-setting. In researching Georgian wines, I consulted a variety of different government or industry-sponsored bodies (from distributors, to importers, to trade associations) each of whom listed different collections of retailers that carried or could ship relevant wines. But on closer observation and in some cases phone calls, what this meant was that XYZ Wine Retailer "had carried ABC wine... 2 years ago... and sometimes has it in stock" (or a similar story). At best, they may have carried only a subset of the selection. When searching for the Madeira tasting wines -- 3 Madeiras, made in the same edition by the same producer -- the cheapest website with the best customer service and user interface had only 2 of the 3 sought-after wines, with no ready substitute... pushing me to another vendor entirely.

All of this points to a tremendous opportunity from consolidation -- not just for market power, but for real returns to consumers who are looking to explore more of the 100,000s of SKUs available in the U.S. at any given time. What good does it do to educate consumers and bring them new wines, and give them an app to remember the wine, if they can never buy it again? A winery can hold an audience through wine clubs, but for consumers looking for a modern retail buying experience there remains tremendous room to improve.

P.S. to readers here, I have ~20 bottles of wine arriving in the next week as a result of my research here, so please help me drink it.

Monday, January 30, 2017

Alcoholic retail licenses in California


After last week’s lectures I became curious about alcohol licenses. As detaining a license can be so fundamental in running a business related to alcohol, I started doing some research on the subject.
It turns out that probably I would need a whole quarter of research to fully understand the license system, so I am going to briefly present what I have discovered. I am also sure that I will have done mistakes in the interpretation of the policies, so please correct me in the comments if I am wrong.

I counted approximately 80 different types of alcoholic beverage licenses. I will focus on retail licenses in California as there seems to be more information available on those. Listing all of them would be excessive, but I found that most of them touch on the same privileges. These are:
  • Beer / Wine / Spirit: defines which beverages can be sold / held at the premise under the license. Some licenses do not enable the sale of spirits, but admit the presence of spirits on premise to be used for cooking purposes. Licenses that enable the sale of liquors have a much higher value compared to only wine and beer licenses.
  • On sale / off sale: defines if the purchased alcoholic beverages must be consumed on site or off site
  • Food required: defines whether the license holder must provide food. Some licenses require only snacks whereas others define that the majority of sales of the license holder must be generated by food
  • Minors: defines whether minors (of 21) can or cannot be allowed on premise
  • Yearly or seasonal: defines whether the license is valid year-round or only during specific months
There are two ways to obtain a retail license, either by applying for a new license or buy acquiring a license from a current license holder. Either way, the licenses have to be renewed every 12 months.

The number of liquor licenses is capped per county. Each year the state decides the number of new licenses to concede to each county. To obtain one of those licenses an application has to be filed. If the county receives more applications than available licenses, then a public drawing is held to determine who obtains the license. For 2016 the cost to apply for a new license was $ 13’800.

Buying a license is more complicated but usually a necessary route. The price varies mainly based on location and license type. Lowest prices range in the $ 3000 – 5000 range (for wine and beer licenses) all the way up to hundreds of thousands of dollars for popular areas. There exist a number of “license brokers” specialized in the purchase and sale of alcohol licenses.

Questions:
  • What is a “bona fide” eating area? Bona fide means good faith in latin. It appears often in the ABC guidelines, but I haven’t been able to find an exhaustive definition, especially when related to eating areas
  • I struggled to find information on distributor and wholesaler liquor licenses. May this be the result of lobbying from current distributors?

Sources:
- Most common liquor licenses and brief description http://www.abc.ca.gov/forms/abc616.pdf
- Liquor licensing brokerage and consulting firm with information about the process http://liquorlicensenetwork.com/
- Liquor license cost estimate http://grbill.com/what-is-the-cost-of-a-liquor-license-in-california/
- Application process flowchart http://www.abc.ca.gov/Legal/Application_Process/Application_Process_Chart.pdf
- List of all Californian license types http://www.abc.ca.gov/permits/licensetypes.html

Scale of online wine sales in China

As of August 2016, China has approximately 21 million wine buyers online, making it the world’s largest and fastest-growing e-commerce market for wine, and the channel is becoming increasingly important for Chinese wine drinkers. The internet has surpassed hypermarkets and department stores to become the second most popular channel to buy wine. Online sales makes up for 5% of total wine sales globally. But in China, online sales is 20% of total wine imports.

Two major Chinese players in the online wine sales are Alibaba (through Tmall) and JD.com. Tmall's newly launched Vinyard Direct Program is a channel for overseas chateaux and producers to launch sell directly to consumers in China. JD.com, on the other hand, works both as an importer to buy wines from abroad and sell it directly and as a ‘shopping mall’ for wine merchants to host their own shops. It had sold 400m yuan (US$61.5m) of wine direct to consumers as an importer in 2015 and expect to triple the sales in 2016. Sales on its "shopping mall" also expect to triple in 2016 to hit 1.5bn yuan. The growth room is still tremendous - only 3-4% of JD.com's registered customer currently buy wine through the website.

Source:
1. Wine Intelligence (http://www.wineintelligence.com/the-future-is-now/)
2. Decanter China (https://www.decanterchina.com/en/knowledge/people/importers/jd-com-mapping-the-landscape-of-online-wine-sales-in-china-part-i)


How Gliding Eagle works


When we discussed the WineDirect case last week, we heard Joe talk about how his company was tapping the burgeoning China market by providing DTC shipments through Gliding Eagle.  Given the growing interest of Chinese consumers on Napa Valley wines and their strong buying power, it is definitely a market no one wants to miss.  But as Joe has explained, shipping wine to China involves complicated customs procedures that usually take a long time to complete, WineDirect therefore partners with Gliding Eagle which not just takes care of the paperwork, but also goes one step further to ensure the authenticity of the wines it ships to give consumer the added confidence, one thing that matters a lot to Chinese consumers.


I have visited Gliding Eagle's website and a few other websites to understand more about the company and its mode of operation.  The company was founded in California in 2010.  Its value proposition is to link up "premium American brands with Chinese consumers" through its DTC model built upon a complete traceability feature.  It seeks to ensure channel transparency and product authenticity.

At the moment, the company primarily handles premium wines and natural consumer products.  In the case of wine, the collaboration with WineDirect began in December 10, 2015.  Once an order (to China) is received, wine will be distributed to Gliding Eagle's warehouse.  The orders will be packed into shock-proof shipping boxes then "consolidated into full pallets".  Customs declaration is done on pallet basis and only one importation fee is charged for the entire pallet.  This significantly simplifies the procedures.



To address counterfeiting concerns, each bottle shipped is applied an authenticity label with a 12-digit  tracking number of QR code for online validation by the end consumer when he/she receives the bottles.

Next the pallets are shipped to Gliding Eagle's custom clearing brokers in Hong Kong by FedEx.  Here Gliding Eagle and the broker will handle all customs paperwork, and arrange for delivery either in Hong Kong or for onward delivery to China.

In this respect, I can see that Gliding Eagle and its customs broker have taken advantage of Hong Kong's recent policy change adopted since February 2008, whereby all import duties for wine were eliminated (i.e. zero-tariff to Hong Kong).  To further enhance Hong Kong's role to become a regional wine trading and distribution hub in Asia, the Hong Kong Government rolled out with the Customs of Mainland China facilitation measures for wines imported from Hong Kong in June 2010 (the year Gliding Eagle was established), which allowed pre-valuation of wine and shortened the time required for handling wine imports at major Chinese ports.



As a result, the delivery time from the U.S. to Hong Kong would take about 3 days and about 12 to 14 days to other part of China, as explained by the figure below.



Source: https://www.gliding-eagle.com/us/wine

Although this model seems to have worked well in recent years after Hong Kong's policy change mentioned above, and we have also seen massive increase in re-export of U.S. wine from Hong Kong to China (i.e. the model adopted by Gliding Eagle) - in 2014, the total re-export value was about US$190M (YoY growth of 86.9%) and the same figure in 2015 was US$516M (YoY growth of 171.6%), but since the 2nd half of 2016 we have seen some slowing down in the growth rate.  As a matter of fact, the YoY figure decreased by 47.8%, 35.8% and 32.6% for September, October and November 2016 respectively.  The recent slowing down of the Chinese economy could have been a reason for that decline but suppliers like WineDirect and intermediaries like Gliding Eagle may wish to find out more what this really means for them and their businesses, and how they should respond properly, if they also detect a similar trend in their numbers.  


Sources of information: 
Wine Hong Kong http://www.wine.gov.hk/en/statistics.html
Gliding Eagle https://www.gliding-eagle.com/us/wine
"Napa Valley's Vin65, Gliding Eagle seek to ease China wine direct-to-consumer shipments"
http://www.northbaybusinessjournal.com/northbay/napacounty/4906226-181/easy-china-wine-direct-shipping?artslide=0

Disrupting ritual

I recognize the efficiency gains and cost savings provided by the direct-to-consumer model. Still, at first I couldn't help but feel a pang of nostalgia at people purchasing wine online. I feel similarly about books purchased on Amazon. Don't get me wrong - I am one of the many who has embraced online purchasing as more convenient and cheaper than in-store. Why spend more just to schlep a book around that you could more easily have shipped right to your door? But my heart and my head are divided on this - because as much as I love having the cheap version shipped to my door, I love even more the ritual of spending an hour at the bookstore finding the "right" book. The feeling is similar for wine. When I lived in Brooklyn, I had a favorite wine store, Slope Cellars, where I would always go to buy my wine. It was dark and cool and full of people who recognized the importance of taking the time to find the right wine. They would always select for me  a perfect wine to go with whatever I was serving for dinner. Which explains my knee-jerk reaction of fear and defensiveness for Slope Cellars and other similar vendors when hearing about the DTC wine channel.

The more I have thought about it, however, the more I optimistic I am that DTC will do more good than harm even for small businesses like Slope Cellars. Similar to those independent bookstores that have persisted despite competitive pressure from Amazon, I think the independent wine store can thrive despite DTC online wine vendors. This is because a good independent wine store offers something that online DTC wine shopping cannot: ritual. Just like reading a real newspaper or strolling the aisles of a real book store, buying wine from a wine store is an experience that cannot be duplicated. Thus, the experience offered by these shops may gain value with the proliferation of DTC wine. Furthermore, brick and mortar bookstores were killed in part by Amazon and in part by ebooks. As there is no ewine to replace wine, the pressure on small wine shops may be less than that placed on bookstores by Amazon. And so I am hopeful that I can have my cake and eat it too. That DTC wine will continue to grow (last year's growth was a strong 18.5%) without causing harm to independent wine shops. Instead, DTC will give small wineries a fair shake at competitiveness and (hopefully) squeeze out those distributors that claim more value than they create in the supply chain.

https://www.winesandvines.com/template.cfm?section=news&content=178968
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/04/07/amazon-is-killing-the-book-business/#63d6e7dd1e4e


Sunday, January 29, 2017

From a winery's viewpoint...

Our experience as an importer has been that DTC is often crucial for new wineries (immediate cash, healthy margins, emotional connection and gratification - not to be underestimated!), but growth and long-term sustainability require 'traditional' distribution channels to support higher volumes and economies of scale, as well as marketing/brand-building via on-premise sales. Some examples:

Rhys Vineyards started as a passion project for Kevin Harvey (Benchmark Capital), and for more than a decade they've largely relied on their mailing list (2 year+ waitlist, very limited allocations) for the majority of their sales. Distribution was largely limited to California, Hawaii and the East Coast. However, with the purchase of vineyard land in Anderson Valley and ambitious growth plans for their second decade, they've extended distribution to other large urban markets (e.g. Texas) and are pursuing export opportunities as well. Their wines are on the lists of all 6 Michelin 3* restaurants in the Bay Area and by-the-glass at 3 of them!

Inconnu is one of the few wineries started and helmed by a female winemaker, Laura Brennan Brissell, and while her first 2 vintages were mainly sold through word of mouth and a mailing list, she has been working with her distributors to gain placements in restaurants like Chez Panisse and Camino and working the export markets.

Lastly, an exception that proves the rule: Birichino, the brainchild of two Bonny Doon (an iconoclastic Californian producer if there ever was one) alumni, started with distribution to Canada and Northern Europe (both markets largely run by government monopolies), but are now building a tasting room in Santa Cruz to expand their DTC segment.


Distributions Channels and Policies in EU vs US


After Monday’s lecture, I couldn’t help but wonder, how is wine in Europe regulated? Is the EU a productive force on the distribution of wine or a common hindrance?

It turns out that EU wine regulations (which cover over 60% of the world’s wine producers), are a part of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of EU. These regulations focus more on vineyard allotment per country, winemaking practices and labeling rather than the distribution process.

It is clear that EU wine regulations are set to protect producers by capping overproduction of certain wines and protect consumers, by providing certified labels for Protected designations of origin (PDOs). The complexity of the 21st amendment has created a 3-tier system in the United States including distributors. In Germany, for example, it is clear that distribution is direct to consumer and direct to retail, cutting out the middleman. Economically, the result is better for producers and consumers. As mentioned in class, I hope that the United States can improve its distribution process for alcoholic beverages. Having a direct to consumer and retail market is better for everyone.


Example of Distribution in Germany:




Three – Tiered system in United States







Sources: