Thursday, January 26, 2017

A different add on to the value chain?

This week, we heard from two different speakers both focused on the 3 tier system and the tradeoffs of working in/outside of that. 

The conversations made me think about a concept that I fell in love with over the summer - just-in-time alcohol delivery services, like minibar and drizly. These services seem to have neither licenses nor warehouses but act as the connection point between the retailer and end-consumer. 

For example, a consumer can go onto one of these websites (or apps), browse through a variety of different alcoholic beverages, select and pay through that portal. The beverage is then delivered - often in under an hour and cold if appropriate. Behind the scenes, these services are receiving the consumer's order, sourcing that product from the closest retailer, and delivering that item to their door in the time it takes to get takeout.

What I find interesting about these solutions is that they have the potential and indeed seem to be doing a better job of cultivating behavior change in the consumer (online/mobile ordering) by hitting them at the right critical moment - when someone absolutely needs a bottle of wine/other alcoholic beverage. For example, you're on your way to a friend's house and realize that you've forgotten to pick up a bottle of wine for dinner; you're hosting a party and have just run out of wine, etc. After those critical moments, people are more likely to become repeat customers given the ease of the solution.

What I wonder is whether these players can grab enough of the consumer market to become players within the industry as a whole. Is the trend towards "just in time" large enough to give them power within the value chain or will they always be a side show? As it comes to more premium/hard to get beverages - like craft and small wineries - will they start to fizzle?

In their favor I see the ability to cultivate a strong consumer base, the breadth of their offerings (I think it unlikely that the consumer will ultimately want to use multiple different marketplaces for different alcoholic beverages/anything), data to do hyper-targeted advertising (e.g. I know this consumer orders beer every Sunday before a game), and elimination of the costs associated with having warehouses among others.

On the flip side, they will likely hit a road block to independence if they cannot offer the breadth of product that something like a WineDirect has access to. Their core competency is also logistics - not wine or curation. Even with the access to consumers at the right time, without some real estate and/or ability to get depth of product I don't seem them gaining enough of a foothold to knock other sellers/delivery providers out of the market.

What I think likely, is that they become a great acquisition for a company that has the supply and some logistics, but not as much of the "just in time". While the alternative is possible (i.e. they buy a WineDirect), I'm not sure that they will be able to gain enough of a national and international footprint to make this possible. If it really is a huge seller, Amazon, GrubHub, or Seamless will likely knock them out.




Additional:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ab-inbev-joins-beer-delivery-game-with-new-app-1421327058

2 comments:

  1. Nice post! re: on-demand services - i agree that the likes of postmates will find it difficult to scale on the wine front.

    When we evaluated on-demand companies, the key factors that ultimately made up its economics (and thus whether it's a scalable and feasible business model or not) were the value of the item (check!), the frequency of purchase (not check!), the necessity of being on-demand (not check!), and the ease of disintermediation (check minus?). These are weighed against the cost of being on-demand (quality and quantity of drivers at the ready to deliver) On many counts, wine does not need to be fulfilled on-demand. Scheduled delivery for the convenience? Sure. On-demand? Probably not.

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  2. Some of these services also meet a slightly different need in terms of alcohol delivery - gifting! I'm more familiar with drizly than the others, but the website allows you to send bottles of wine or spirits to someone as a gift. It makes the process really easy for the recipient as well - they are able to schedule the delivery so someone can be there to sign it. I most recently used the service to send champagne to a bachelorette party that I could not attend. The process and interface could not be simpler.

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